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Starting Sunday when the NCAA tournament bracket is released, and in every subsequent show, podcast and article, you’ll hear one name over and over as a first-round upset special.
South Dakota State.
Now that the Jackrabbits are in the tournament, having won the Summit League tournament with a 75-69 win over North Dakota State on Tuesday night (squeezing out a push for anyone who took them as a 6-point favorite), their status as everyone’s darling is set. You’ll hear other mid-major names come up as the bracket is broken down a million times before tipoff next Thursday, but South Dakota State is the one team that you’ll hear about most often. It’s the underdog everyone will be encouraging you bet in the first round at BetMGM. Be warned.
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And when people say whatever single-digit seed didn’t want to see South Dakota State in the first round, they’ll be right.
South Dakota State can hit shots
The reason the Jackrabbits will be a popular upset pick is simple: They shoot the ball better than anyone else in the nation. Better than Arizona, Kentucky, Kansas, Gonzaga or any team that is considered a Final Four contender.
Before Tuesday night’s final, South Dakota State led the nation in 3-point shooting at 44.3%. No other team was above 40%. Their effective field-goal percentage, which weighs 3-pointers more heavily, is first in the nation too. Their effective field-goal percentage was 60.1 before Tuesday. Only Gonzaga (59.3%), was higher than 57.6. That’s a sizable gap.
At Bracket Matrix, which compiles mock brackets from around the internet, South Dakota State entered Tuesday as a projected No. 12 seed. Everyone knows how often a No. 12 upsets a No. 5 in the first round. Getting a No. 12 seed would make the South Dakota State buzz even stronger. And it’ll be strong no matter where they land on the bracket.
Jackrabbits dominated league play
The problem with advancing the Jackrabbits in your bracket, regardless of who they get matched up with, is their lack of quality wins. It’s not all their fault; the Summit League doesn’t provide many opportunities for quality wins. South Dakota State faced two top-60 teams in the KenPom.com rankings. They lost 104-88 against No. 12 Alabama in their second game of the year, and beat No. 55 Washington State, 77-74, on Dec. 11. They were 0-2 in Quadrant 1 games.
But what SDSU did was beat teams it should beat, at least since mid-December. Their last loss was Dec. 15. They went 18-0 in conference play. Before Tuesday, South Dakota State had won 20 in a row and 13 were by double digits. When you don’t play a tough schedule all you can do is dominate lesser opponents.
Tuesday night wasn’t South Dakota State’s best night. North Dakota State battled hard with the Summit League’s auto bid on the line. But every time North Dakota State made a run to cut the lead or tie it, South Dakota State managed to open a lead back up with a couple of key shots. North Dakota State even took a lead with less than four minutes to go, but South Dakota State answered and then pulled away in the final seconds. The Jackrabbits overcame the loss of key reserve Luke Appel, who left the game with a foot injury. His health before the NCAA tournament will be worth monitoring.
Just get ready to hear the name South Dakota State a lot next week. Every talking head will be telling you they’re a great bet to pull an upset in the first round. They all might be right.
